You — and only you — have the power to increase your own job satisfaction, if you can move beyond the defeated lethargy afflicting many physicians because of the currently untenable healthcare model. Takes guts, but think of all the inner glory awaiting you. So perhaps it’s time to take some chances, even if many of the issues plaguing primary care today are as difficult for you to control as the whims of a headstrong hurricane. Hone in on and nurture what you can change and help feed the sprout of optimism evidenced by our survey. It’s your collective resolve and subsequent actions that can shift trends and evoke change to make the profession you love everything you want it to be.

Primary Care Supply and Demand About a third of all U.S. doctors — those who focus on primary care — field half of the nation’s annual offices visits. And between 1980 and 2003, those visits have increased by 40 percent, says the National Ambulatory Medical Care Survey. So it’s safe to say yes, you’re needed. But how much, exactly? Well, that’s less certain. Kurt Mosley, vice president of business operations for national recruiting firm Merritt, Hawkins & Associates, believes the need to be significant and growing. Incoming requests to Merritt, Hawkins for primary-care docs have increased more than 150 percent in the past five years, from 341 in 2004/2004 to 878 in 2007/2008. “Primary care is back with a vengeance,” says Mosley. Our own survey shows that many of today’s physicians are getting pinged by employment head-hunters. Nearly half of those surveyed (47.2 percent) are contacted between one and five times per month; about a fifth receive phone calls or e-mails regarding availability six to 10 times a month; 15.3 percent field recruiter calls 11 to 20 times each month. And for 7.54 percent, such calls are a near-daily experience (21-plus calls per month). Other studies put the primary-care supply well below the demand waterline as well. The American Academy of Family Physicians estimates a 39 percent increased need for primary care by 2020. And the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services’ Health Resources and Administration (HRSA), which recently published physician supply and demand projections to 2020, projects supply at just over 271,400 physicians and demand rates topping 337,000. These estimates do come with some significant caveats: Much depends on hard-to-pin-down factors, such as technological advances, the influx of nonphysician providers, public expectations, and policy changes. HHS suggests that the need for certain specialists (such as cardiologists and urologists) will rise disproportionately to other specialists, due to the proliferation of citizenry over age 65. Such a demand for specialists could possibly outpace the need for primary-care physicians. One area in primary care that seems less rosy than others in terms of job outlook is pediatrics. Again, conflicting trends come into play. “[The supply of] pediatricians has increased,” says Mosley. “I wouldn’t say there’s a glut, but it’s adequate.” U.S. Census figures back him up. Between 1981 and 2004, the pediatric work force more than doubled. Meanwhile, the birthrate sank a bit, from 15.8 live births per 1,000 persons to 14.1. At the other end, we’re getting older as a population. Today, people aged 65-plus comprise roughly 12 percent of the population; by 2050, that figure will nearly double at 22 percent. Children, who make up about a quarter of the current U.S. population now, will continue to occupy this same fraction of the whole until at least the half-way mark through this century.

Shirley Grace is an associate editor at Physicians Practice. She can be reached at sgrace@physicianspractice.com.

This article originally appeared in the November 2008 issue of Physicians Practice.